Chapter 1 Continues...

The increased violence also led to an increase in civilian and ANSF casualties. A report released by the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) in October 2013 stated that civilian casualties in Afghanistan had increased by 16 percent in the first eight months of 2013 as compared to the same period in 2012. An earlier UNAMA report released in August had stated that a total of 1,320 civilians and more than 2,500 civilians had been injured in war-linked incidents with a majority of the casualties being caused by the insurgents (see figures 1 and 2 below). The volatile eastern provinces of Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Nuristan accounted for most of the violence and casualties. The ANSF casualties saw an increase of 76 percent this year between April and September, while the casualty rate of the international coalition during the same period fell by 59 percent. Figures released by NATO highlight that the ANSF were the target of approximately 70 percent of insurgent attacks.
Despite its capability to orchestrate such violence, the Taliban is likely to find it difficult to repeat their military success of the 1990s, even with external support. Growing Taliban influence will not only be resisted fiercely by Northern Alliance members but also by several warlords and provincial governors who have considerable clout and military power. Former mujahideen leaders like Ismail Khan, Marshal Mohammad Qasim Fahim and Ahmad Zia Massoud have publicly called on their supporters to prepare to defend themselves.
Another challenge for the Taliban is going to come from the schisms within the group itself. This has been seen as an inevitable consequence of expanding the recruitment base beyond the Ghilzai and other tribes, which formed the backbone of the Taliban in the earlier years. Over the years, the number of Panjpai Durranis in the leadership and cadre of the group has increased significantly, creating internal fissures.
A number of subordinate leaders like Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir and Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor have been accused of promoting their own loyalists at the expense of the group’s overall unity.

To be continued...