Chapter 1 Afghanistan in 2015, Continues...


It should be remembered that while President Najibullah was able to hold on to power for three years following the Soviet withdrawal, funding cuts from Russia made it difficult for him to sustain government institutions and pay his allies, eventually leading to his resignation.
The international community has agreed to provide US$ 4.1 billion a year towards the funding of the ANSF. Of this US$ 2.3 billion was pledged by the US, the allied contributions constituted US$ 1.3 billion and the Afghan government is meant to pay US$ 500 million annually. The Afghan contribution is to rise steadily until 2024 by which time Afghanistan is expected to fund its own security needs. However, this figure was worked out on the assumption that the ANSF post-2014 would shrink to 228,000. The apparent decision to keep the ANSF force at 352,000 necessitates revising funding levels to about US$ 6 billion per year.

This amount, as it is, is significantly lower than what has been provided on an annual basis over the past decade. Moreover, given the impact of the global financial crisis, war fatigue and ever- increasing disenchantment about rampant corruption in Afghanistan, it is unclear how much of the pledged amount would actually be disbursed to Afghanistan post-2014. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) issued an audit in October 2012 saying the Afghan government will find it difficult to meet its obligations to fund the force as donor countries wind down their involvement.14
Even at present, there is a wide gap between amount pledged and amounts delivered. Such financial constraints and dwindling foreign aid are likely to undermine the sustainability of the ANSF as well as have a quantitative impact on its size. It is possible that the ANSF may be forced to shrink to 228,000. Reports have also surfaced that the size may be scaled down even further to about 180,000 personnel in the near future.

To be continued...