Chapter 1 continues...

President Karzai cannot be blamed for seeking support from regional countries at this crucial juncture. However, as critical as support from these countries may be for Afghanistan, it cannot and should not be seen as an alternative to US assistance. The durability of the reconstruction efforts and the sustainability of the ANSF are contingent to a large degree on prolonged US support. China, Iran and India are capable of complementing such efforts but not substituting them.
A BLEAK FUTURE?
IfthereisanythingcertainaboutAfghanistantoday,itisthelevelof uncertainty it evokes. As seen from the narrative above, Afghanistan’s future depends on far too many inter-related variables with multiple outcomes.
Based on current trends, the doomsday scenario that is often predicted for Afghanistan may be an exaggeration. The Taliban, in their public declarations, remain confident of securing a victory and returning to Kabul following the drawdown of the foreign forces. However, their internal differences, war-weariness, possible lack of public support—especially when compared to the levels of popularity they commanded when they first swept to power in the 1990s—and most importantly the stronger positions of the ANSF and anti-Taliban forces relative to the 1990s, are likely to keep the Taliban at bay and restrict their influence and control to certain partsofthecountry.Moreover,theinternationalcommunityisalso aware of the dangers of abandoning Afghanistan again. Thus, while the overall international commitment is most definitely going to shrink post-2014, it is highly unlikely that Afghanistan would be abandoned as in 1992.
This, however, does not mean that the level of violence in Afghanistan will reduce. Despite continued international support, it seems improbable that the military balance will shift decisively in favour of the Afghan government. As long as the strategic stalemate is not broken, the Taliban has very little incentive to broker a peace agreement with the government. It will continue to mount attacks against government forces and institutions in the hope of gaining as much territory as possible. Their success, as argued above, may be limited but a lot will depend on the magnitude of support provided by the international community and the strength of the new political regime in Kabul.

To be continued...