Forward continues...

Today, Pakistan, which could have been a leader against the onslaught of religious extremism, has, because of its policies, become the bastion of violent religious extremism of different kinds and without an answer to this menace. Pakistan’s main motivation in wanting to become the dominant factor in Afghanistan has always been the India factor. This has remained unchanged despite a sharply deteriorating economy, acute power and industrial shortages, lawlessness in major cities apart from rising militancy aimed against the Pakistan state and the rising opprobrium of being now universally described as the centre of terrorism.
For India, Pakistan’s negative role and its declining range of options limiting this to using the jihadi option for the future remain a matter of concern and study. Afewyearsago,itwasquite apparent if neither the Pakistan Army nor the Taliban retreated, Pakistan would be staring at an abyss as it is consumed by its own creations—jihad and the Taliban. This is bound to have a bearing on the stability of Afghanistan and security of India. Other concerns would be the nature and number of US forces that remain in Afghanistan, the ability of the Afghan National Security Force to maintain internal cohesion and be able to withstand external pressures. Apart from security concerns, the nature of Afghan economy, law and order and intra-Afghan equations will be of concern too. The six chapters of the study by scholars at the Observer Research Foundation have put together studies relating to what Afghanistan might look like in 2015 and beyond, Pakistan’s Afghan predicament, the strategic play and the internal.

dynamics of the forces at work, notably the military and ultra- religious, how the US-Afghanistan-Pakistan triangle may shape out, what could be Pakistan’s last gambit as it plays its duplicitous game on countering terror and finally the impact this continued hostility and duplicity will have on India’s security. The authors do not make policy recommendations and this is a deliberate choice because the first step is to clearly and unequivocally accept the dangers that lurk.

Vikram Sood-Former Chief of Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) Vice President, Observer Research Foundation.

To be continued...