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EDITORS NOTE.
Any discussion on the future of Afghanistan cannot be complete without analysing the role of Pakistan. Pakistan has been as much an instigator of conflict in Afghanistan over the past three decades as it has been a victim of the instability across the Durand Line. As the international drawdown from Afghanistan is set to be completed by January 2015, Pakistan is once again expected to seek a primary position for itself in determining how the situation in Afghanistan unfolds in the future. There is a great deal of uncertainty and apprehension—particularly in India—on how Pakistan will pursue its Afghan policy post-2014.
Pakistan’s overall strategic objectives with respect to Afghanistan have not changed. It still desires a friendly regime in Kabul, which will not raise the Pashtunistan issue, provide a haven to anti-Pakistan terrorists and reduce India’s influence in Afghanistan. It has continued to provide support and sanctuary to the various factions of the Taliban in order to further its interests in Afghanistan. The continuation of such support in the future is likely to pose one of the biggest challenges to the prospects of peace and stability in Afghanistan, and to India’s interests in the region.
However, Pakistan’s internal predicament, marked by a deteriorating economy, an acute energy crisis, and a violent militancy posing an existential threat, is likely to have an impact on its strategic outlook. Whether it will actually lead to a ‘strategic shift’ in its Afghan policy remains to be seen.
This volume seeks to explore Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan, especially post-the US intervention of 2001. It will examine the internal and external compulsions that have shaped Pakistan’s goals and strategies vis-à-vis Afghanistan; the landscape of terror Pakistan has spawned for over three decades; and the possible fallout of the US troop withdrawal on Pakistan and its sponsored proxies.
It will also look at the impact of the changing situation on India.
(This account is being maintained by Har-Anand Publications)
To be continued…