Chapter 1.
AFGHANISTAN IN 2015- Aryaman Bhatnagar.

The three-decade long conflict in Afghanistan is set to enter a new phase in 2015. As the December 2014 deadline for the withdrawal of foreign troops from the region draws near, there is a great deal of uncertainty and apprehension concerning the manner in which the situation in Afghanistan is likely to unfold.
A number of conjectures have been made in this regard, ranging from Afghanistan’s descent into anarchy akin to the 1990s to the balkanisation of the country along ethnic lines to a return of the Taliban as the most dominant force in the country. There is no certainty that any of these scenarios will come true, but a lot will depend on how some of the core issues confronting Afghanistan today are addressed in the near future.
The drawdown of foreign forces is likely to be accompanied by a dwindling of international interest and financial commitment, which are likely to reduce even further in the future. Afghanistan has been overwhelmingly dependent on international aid for over a decade and is hardly capable of sustaining its economy, military and political spheres on its own.
This security and economic transition is bound to create a protracted period of uncertainty and chaos. The fact that Afghanistan will be preparing itself for a new President for the first time since 2001 makes managing these transitions, already a mounting and heavy task, even harder. In such circumstances, a legitimate, committed and broad-based political leadership could be a significant game changer. The new President, nonetheless, will be confronted with a host of challenges in every sphere.

To be continued...