Impact on India continues ......

A lot will depend on how the internal transition within the movement and the differences among the various factions pan out in the future. There is a great deal of ambiguity surrounding the

Taliban and its command structure. There have been speculations

about the extent of control that Mullah Omar has over his foot

soldiers and hardliners within the Quetta Shura. There is no guarantee that the so-called moderates within the Taliban, with whom the international community is attempting to engage, will

be the ones calling the shots post-2014.

There is also nothing to suggest the degree of influence the former Taliban officials, who are in favour of an engagement with India, have within the movement.

Finally, the Haqqani Network, which is said to be closely aligned with the Pakistan military establishment and responsible for all major attacks on Indian targets in Afghanistan is also staking a

claim to power and is said to owe only nominal allegiance to

Mullah Omar.

It would be disastrous for India if forces that are not amenable

to the idea of engaging with India are dominant within the

movement in the future. The Haqqani network, in particular, could

be a threat to India in the future as it would not be as preoccupied

18 with fighting a large foreign military force in Afghanistan. A

bigger concern for India with respect to the drawdown should be

how this would affect Pakistan’s policy of using Pakistani and

Kashmiri non-state actors against its interests.

ISI’S CAMPAIGN IN KASHMIR

For India, the links between Afghanistan, ISI and Jammu and

Kashmir have been a strong one. It fears that the possible increase

in Islamic radicalism in the region could spur a resurgence of

violence and terrorism in Kashmir, and other parts of India. This is

borne out by the past experience of Pakistan sponsoring terrorist

groups, many of them by-products of the Afghan Jihad, to target

Kashmir in particular.

To be continued...