Critical Triangle continues...

For Afghanistan, such apprehensions though would have been eased somewhat by the signing of the India-USSR friendship treaty in August 1971. This clearly made the USSR the only viable option left for Afghanistan. But the war did for the first time see what had thus far been divergent US and Pakistani interests conflated by the US, though surprisingly not by Pakistan.

The White House’s flawed reading of India's intentions—to destroy West Pakistan after the liberation of East Pakistan—almost succeeded in transforming a regional war into a great power showdown. As Kissinger, for example, first took credit for having saved West Pakistan from such an attack by pressuring the Soviets and claimed he had saved “a major American initiative of fundamental importance to the global balance of power.”

Combined with other factors this had seen Afghanistan shift ever more towards the Soviet Union in its external relations and to the left internally. This shift culminated in the July 1973 coup by leftist officers in Kabul that placed Mohammed Daoud as president, and the abolition of the monarchy. In so doing, King Zahir Shah who had always tried to hedge his bets, and reconcile differences, was decisively removed from the equation.

The next major shift was to come under the Ford administration. The creation of OPEC had significantly boosted petrol prices globally, worsened significantly by the Arab oil embargo initiated in response to the US re-supply of Israel during the 1973 War. This contributed to an economic downturn in India which would, in concert with domestic unrest, lead to the imposition of the Emergency—a period in which India’s constitution was suspended—between 1975 and 1977.Additionally, this spike in oil prices also contributed to the Shah of
Iran and Saudi Arabia’s heightened desire for a leadership role in the region, using their newfound wealth. Much of this wealth was directed at Afghanistan, ostensibly in the hope that Kabul might slowly be weaned away from the USSR.

To be continued....