Can Israel and Hezbollah be pulled back from the brink of war?

By Amin Saikal, Australian National University

The Middle East is on the brink of a possibly devastating regional war, with hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah reaching an extremely dangerous level.

Washington has engaged in intense diplomacy to persuade the protagonists to pull back from the brink. But US efforts have not paid off so far, given its lack of sufficient leverage with both sides.

A grand bargain involving Israel, Hezbollah and their outside supporters is now urgently needed to avoid a regional war.

Netanyahu hanging on by a thread

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza war has emboldened the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon and its supporters.

Israel’s failure to achieve its two main objectives in the war – destroying Hamas and rescuing the Israeli hostages – has left Netanyahu isolated and weakened. His pursuit of scorched-earth operations in Gaza, with no plan for how to end the war or to manage the enclave afterwards, have imperilled his position, as well as that of Israel.

A majority of the Israeli public now want him to leave office. He is hanging onto power with narrow support from the extremist elements in his cabinet and the Israeli Defence Force leadership. He is even alienated from his traditional ultra-Orthodox Jewish supporters, who refuse to serve in the military, and is widely distrusted in Washington, Israel’s life-long backer.

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