Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently put forth an appeal to the leading economies of the world at the G20 summit. His pressing matter of discussion is to heed Russia’s demands and restart the grain deal, which was suspended due to the economic sanctions. The message was clear; he believes that to thaw the cold war over the grain deal, the sanctions on Russia need to be alleviated, which currently bar Moscow from importing indispensable agricultural equipment.

As one of the world’s leading grain exporters, Russia sees itself in a conundrum because the imposed sanctions are constraining it from reaching its full potential. The rules tied to these sanctions have significantly hampered Moscow’s capacity to export and manage its agricultural sectors effectively. Without access to state-of-the-art machinery and technologies, Russia’s production rate has taken a significant blow.

These sanctions have, in turn, kept the previous grain deal between Russia and other nations on standstill. The original agreement would have allowed Moscow to export a significant chunk of its grain surplus to other participating nations, ensuring a more evenly distributed global grain supply chain. This pause in the grain trade has not only detrimentally affected Russia but also sent shockwaves to other nations dependent on Russian grains.

The President’s appeal diverges from the current stance of G20 leaders. The nation leaders, amid disputes and disagreements within the group, have long held the belief that the sanctions are an essential measure to exert pressure on Russia over a variety of issues. This includes the allegations of destabilizing activities conducted by groups identified by the leading nations as a terrorist entity. Therefore, for the G20 leaders, the grain deal issue and the question of easing sanctions on Russia might be intertwined with larger, more serious concerns.

The confluence of internal differences within the G20, Russia’s economic needs, and Turkey’s fresh appeal has created a complex puzzle on the international diplomatic stage. While President Erdogan has succeeded in bringing this matter to the forefront, whether his appeal is potent enough to induce a change in the stance of the G20 leaders remains to be seen.