Exit polls aim to capture voter sentiment and predict election results, but they often fall short. Recent outcomes in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir highlight this issue even more.

While exit polls suggested a clear majority for Congress in Haryana and a lead for the National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir, the actual results were quite different: the BJP secured a record third consecutive term in Haryana, and the National Conference-Congress alliance was comfortably elected in Kashmir.

Most exit polls projected Congress winning over 50 seats in Haryana’s 90-member assembly, with the BJP struggling to reach 30. For example, the C-Voter-India Today exit polls estimated Congress at 50-58 seats and the BJP at 20-28. In reality, the BJP won 48 seats Congress managed 37.

In Kashmir, exit polls anticipated  National Conference-Congress alliance victory of 40-48 seats, with the BJP expected to take 27-32 seats. The actual outcome saw the National Conference winning 42 seats, with Congress only capturing six. This trend mirrors earlier predictions where exit polls overstated the BJP’s expected gains in the Lok Sabha elections, forecasting over 350 seats when the party ultimately secured 240.

One major reason for these inaccuracies is how pollsters assess voter sentiment and how they translate into votes. Then comes the issue whether they are getting the people who are telling them the truth or misleading them.

Many underestimated the BJP's vote share, which was nearly equal to Congress at around 40% in the Haryana polls. Pollsters often miss the dynamics of the “silent vote,” composed of women and marginalized groups, which can be crucial in tight races.

In Haryana, the assumption that the Jat vote would favor Congress proved incorrect, as this vote was split between Congress and independents, allowing the BJP to consolidate the non-Jat vote. This miscalculation emphasizes that pollsters can misjudge both the vote-to-seat conversion and the details of voter preferences.Additionally, the theory that the BJP has lost its appeal in the Hindi heartland is complicated by its strong performances in states like Delhi and Madhya Pradesh. While there were setbacks in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, the BJP's successes elsewhere challenge the narrative of a lost Hindi heartland.