Former President Donald Trump’s social media company is experiencing a dramatic resurgence on Wall Street, driven by perceptions of his chances in the upcoming presidential election.

Just weeks ago, Trump Media & Technology Group was in disarray, with its share price plummeting to a record low of $12.15 on September 23, an 82% decline from its peak. However, in the three weeks since, the company's stock has rebounded nearly 150%, more than doubling its value. Last week alone, shares surged nearly 50%, followed by an 18% increase on Monday.

This remarkable turnaround, even for a notoriously volatile stock often described as a "meme stock on steroids," lacks a clear catalyst. There were no new revenue announcements or endorsements from analysts; instead, the increase seems tied to the perceived odds of Trump winning in November. Trump Media has become a way for traders to speculate on the election.

The presidential race remains extremely competitive, but recent polls and betting markets have shifted somewhat in Trump's favor. Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, explains, “If Trump gets elected, this stock could soar; if he loses, it might drop to zero.”

Trump is central to the company, being its most popular user on Truth Social, and his 114.75 million shares make him the dominant shareholder. Since September 23, the value of his stake has risen by approximately $1.7 billion, now totaling $3.4 billion.

Finance professor Jay Ritter calls the stock's 100% surge “stunning,” noting that meme stocks thrive on attention and current expectations about the election.

Michael Block, COO of AgentSmyth, points out bullish options activity expiring on November 15, just days post-election, suggesting a strategic bet on a Trump victory.

Despite this surge, the stock remains far below its March peak of $66 and is still down about $2 billion from that level.

Ritter cautions that the market may be overvaluing Trump Media, estimating it could be worth just its cash reserves, predicting a potential 90% drop.