The upcoming G20 summit is expected to be dominated by Western leaders and their allies, a dynamic that could exacerbate existing divisions. Key figures in attendance will include U.S. President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman, and Japan’s Fumio Kishida. The conspicuous absence of leaders from China and Russia underscores the deep divisions within the group, making it a litmus test for international cooperation.

Risk of Fragmentation Looms:

Analysts warn that a failed G20 summit would not only expose the limitations of cooperation between Western and non-Western powers but also drive nations to solidify their alignments with groups they find more aligned with their interests. This fragmentation could have far-reaching consequences, potentially undermining efforts to address critical global challenges that require collective action.

Diplomatic Challenge for India:

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is using the G20 presidency to bolster India’s standing as a global economic powerhouse and leader of the Global South, faces a challenging task. The diplomatic success of the summit will reflect not only on India but also on Modi’s leadership. Failure to forge a consensus or produce a joint statement could constitute a significant diplomatic setback for India.

Canada’s Trudeau and Russia’s Lavrov set contrasting expectations:

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have set contrasting expectations for the summit. Trudeau, in a call with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy, expressed disappointment over the Ukrainian president’s absence and pledged strong support for Ukraine’s cause. On the other hand, Lavrov has indicated that Russia will block the final declaration unless it aligns with Moscow’s stance on Ukraine and other crises. This discord between key stakeholders only adds to the uncertainty surrounding the summit’s outcome.