Gaza update: hopes for a ceasefire fade again

By Sam Phelps, The Conversation

Northern and central Gaza have been hit by Israeli airstrikes this week as troops return to battle Hamas fighters in areas they claimed to have cleared many months ago. The intensified military offensive unfolded just days after mediators thought they were making headway in negotiations for a ceasefire. On Friday, Hamas reportedly dropped its insistence on a “complete” ceasefire as a prerequisite for talks.

But hope of progress was brought to an abrupt halt. It emerged that an Israeli delegation led by spy chief David Barnea had travelled to Doha not to finalise a ceasefire deal, but to instead issue further demands on Hamas. Since then, the group has said that Israel’s renewed offensive in Gaza City could “reset the negotiation process to square one”.

Ceasefire plans are yet again hanging by a thread. According to Paul Rogers of the University of Bradford, this is not a surprise. He argues that the chances of reaching a ceasefire deal are, and always have been, slim.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemingly learned shortly after the start of the war that the complete destruction of Hamas would not be possible – a fact now being proved regularly as the group resurfaces in some of Gaza’s hardest-hit areas. But he has pressed on with the military campaign anyway.

Rogers argues that continuing with the war is the only way Netanyahu can maintain support from influential factions within his government. Two of his ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose parties help Netanyahu’s coalition secure a small majority in parliament, remain steadfast in their opposition to striking any deal before Hamas is destroyed. On July 8, Smotrich took to social media to say that making a ceasefire deal now would be “senseless folly”.

Smotrich, who is finance minister and the leader of the ultranationalist Religious Zionist party, has gained huge influence over government policy over the past couple of years.

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