Israel's Lebanon War Should Learn Lessons from the American Disaster in Iraq

Killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was touted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a step toward shifting “the balance of power in the region for years to come.” 

Netanyahu sees a chance for a fundamental reconfiguration of power in the Middle East and may assume Hezbollah is mortally wounded. However, total victory is elusive, and those who pursue grand ambitions often end up regretting their choices.

Since September 17, Israel has delivered significant blows to the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon. Initial attacks included targeted strikes on communication systems, followed by a massive airstrike in southern Beirut that killed senior commander Ibrahim Aqil, along with at least two dozen civilians. This was followed by a brutal bombing campaign that culminated in the killing of Nasrallah, which resulted in extensive destruction. While Hezbollah's senior leadership has been severely impacted, recent history offers bitter lessons for Israeli leaders and others with grand visions for change in Lebanon and the broader Middle East.

In June 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon with the aim of dismantling the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and establishing a pro-Israel, Christian-dominated government in Beirut, while driving out Syrian forces. It ultimately failed in all three objectives. While Palestinian armed groups were compelled to leave under an American-brokered deal, the PLO's national aspirations remained unquashed. Five years later, the First Palestinian Intifada erupted, demonstrating the resilience of Palestinian resistance against Israeli occupation.

Israel’s main ally during that invasion was Bashir Al-Gemayel, a Maronite Christian militia leader who was assassinated before taking office. His brother, Amin, succeeded him, and under his leadership, Lebanon and Israel signed an agreement in May 1983 to establish normal relations. However, this government quickly fell due to intense opposition, leading to the abrogation of the agreement.

The U.S. had deployed troops to Beirut after the September 1982 Sabra-Shatila massacres but withdrew following attacks on its embassy and military barracks in October 1983. The Lebanese civil war reignited and continued for over six more years. Syrian forcessent as a deterrent in 1976, did not leave Lebanon until 2005, following the assassination of Rafiq Al-Hariri.