Imad El-Anis, Nottingham Trent University

The Israeli invasion of Lebanon has begun – and there are reports of heavy fighting between units of the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah in south Lebanon, accompanied by airstrikes and shelling of Hezbollah positions.

For the past year, many have feared that the war between Israel and Hamas will spill over into neighbouring countries and drag the Middle East into a devastating conflict. Now Israel has launched what it is calling a “limited ground operation” which it claims is designed to clear Hezbollah out of south Lebanon.

In mid-September, Israel announced it was shifting its defence policy towards its northern border, where 70,000 people had been displaced over the past year by rockets fired by Hezbollah. Defence minister Yoav Gallant said its war aims had shifted to include ensuring these civilians could return to their homes in safety.

After a fortnight of missile strikes into Lebanon, Israel claims to have eliminated much of the Hezbollah leadership as well as knocking out a great deal of its military infrastructure. This next phase of the conflict will pose more intense challenges for all involved and presents great risks to the region and beyond.

But perhaps lost in the debates about whether Israel can defeat Hezbollah (and Hamas in Gaza), how Iran (Hezbollah and Hamas’ main backer) will respond and who will ultimately win, is the possibility that Lebanon could fail as a state if this war escalates. And that serves no one’s interests.

But perhaps lost in the debates about whether Israel can defeat Hezbollah (and Hamas in Gaza), how Iran (Hezbollah and Hamas’ main backer) will respond and who will ultimately win, is the possibility that Lebanon could fail as a state if this war escalates. And that serves no one’s interests.

Lebanon is a vulnerable country that has been plagued by devastating economic and political crises, corruption, human rights violations and a breakdown in trust between the government and society over the past decade. Its economy is fragile, having never recovered from the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

For more

https://theconversation.com/israeli-invasion-could-push-an-already-unstable-lebanon-over-t