Perhaps the most significant outcome of the 1982 invasion was the emergence of Hezbollah, which engaged in a relentless guerrilla war that ultimately forced Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon. This marked the first and only instance of an Arab military force successfully pushing Israel from Arab land. With Iranian support, Hezbollah proved to be more lethal and effective than the Palestinian militants Israel had displaced.

Hezbollah fought Israel to a standstill in the 2006 war and has only grown stronger in subsequent years, aided by Iran. Although Hezbollah currently faces challenges and is reportedly infiltrated by Israeli intelligence, it would be premature to dismiss its capabilities.

Beyond Lebanon, the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of unchecked ambition. As the Iraqi army collapsed and U.S. troops advanced on Baghdad, the George W. Bush administration entertained the notion that the fall of Saddam Hussein would lead to regime changes in Tehran and Damascus and ignite a wave of democracy across the region. Instead, the occupation resulted in a bloodbath of sectarian violence, costing the U.S. dearly in blood and treasure, while the Iraqi people suffered even more. The removal of Saddam allowed Iran to expand its influence in Iraq, while Al-Qaeda regrouped and evolved into the Islamic State.

Then-U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s remarked during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, suggesting that the chaos was merely “the birth pangs of a new Middle East.”

Well it was either hoping against hope or getting it all wrong. 

Either way, we  must be wary of those who promise a new dawn or a rebalanced Middle East. Lebanon exemplifies the potential for unintended consequences.