As the final weeks of a closely contested campaign approach, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are intensifying their outreach beyond their traditional supporter bases. This strategy reflects deeper demographic trends that are reshaping the American electorate, particularly the decline of White voters without a college degree—once the cornerstone of the Republican coalition.

According to a recent analysis by demographer William Frey, based on the latest Census Bureau data, the share of eligible White voters without a college degree has fallen by just over 2 percentage points since 2020, dipping below 40% of the eligible voting pool for the first time. This shift is significant as it highlights the changing demographics in the United States, particularly as the country becomes increasingly diverse.

Frey's findings indicate that while the proportion of working-class Whites is decreasing, both White voters with at least a four-year college degree and voters of color have each increased by approximately 1 percentage point since 2020. These long-term trends have resulted in well-educated Whites now making up more than one in four eligible voters, while voters of color have surpassed one in three.

These demographic changes are driving both candidates' strategies. Trump has focused on expanding his appeal to Black and Latino voters, particularly men, as he seeks to compensate for the decline of his traditional base. Conversely, Harris is targeting college-educated White voters who have previously leaned toward the Repub a strategy underscored by her recent campaigning in affluent suburbs around Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee alongside former Republican Representative Liz Cheney.

The implications of these shifts in the electorate are significant. Trump, despite winning a substantial share of White voters without a college degree—comparable to Ronald Reagan's 1984 campaign—has seen his overall share of the vote decline. In 1984, Reagan captured nearly 59% of the total vote, whereas Trump secured about 47% in each of his campaigns. This disparity can be attributed to the changing composition of the electorate; working-class Whites, who made up two-thirds of voters in 1984, now account for only around two-fifths.