In the pre-war discussions between the US and Russia, Joe Biden warned Russia about the consequences of aggression, but explicitly excluded the possibility of the use of armed force by the United States. Now as Ukrainian civilians come under severe attack and refugees are pouring into other central European countries, the clamour for a military response from Nato is getting louder.

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has declared that the skies “needed to be closed over” – and a Ukrainian journalist confronted the UK prime minister Boris Johnson at a press conference issuing a tearful demand for western support to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine – something Johnson rejected out of hand.

The obvious reason why the Ukrainians are desperate for a no-fly zone to be imposed is that it would limit Russia’s options to launch airstrikes on Ukraine’s cities. This despite the fact that – as Johnson pointed out – a no-fly zone would not prevent Russia from using missiles to hit targets in Ukraine. Britain’s defence secretary Ben Wallace also argued against a no-fly zone, on the grounds that this would prevent Ukrainian warplanes from targeting Russian forces on the ground.

The tactical arguments against a no-fly zone are not convincing. A no-fly zone does not mean that no aircraft are permitted to fly, because it is enforced by aircraft that constantly patrol the skies. A no-fly zone could apply to hostile planes only if Ukrainian planes are equipped with Nato “friend-or-foe identification” and would stop Russian attack helicopters supporting ground forces.

It would free the Ukrainian air force to target Russian convoys approaching major cities. The most fundamental reason why the US and the other Nato states are drawing a firm line against any direct combat missions in Ukraine has to do with the perceived risks of escalation.

Indeed, Vladimir Putin has already issued a direct threat of the use of nuclear forces in response to economic measures and political attacks against Russia. So far, western leaders have ignored these threats because they do not consider them to be credible.

Full story at The Conversation: https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-why-nato-is-refusing-to-enforce-a-no-fly-zone-178338
Image courtesy: EPA-EFE/Maxim Shipenkov