With over 78 million Americans already casting their ballots across nearly every U.S. state and Washington, D.C., early voting is seeing historic participation this election cycle. Key swing states, including North Carolina and Georgia, are seeing particularly high turnout. Republicans, who traditionally lagged behind in early voting, are celebrating increased participation this year, with some pointing to long lines in Democratic-leaning precincts as a sign of enthusiasm. But does early voting necessarily indicate how the election will play out?

It’s still unclear how this surge in early voting will impact the final results. Many Republicans, who previously avoided early voting—especially by mail—during the Trump era, are now embracing it. This shift could improve their chances, but it might also just mean that their Election Day votes are being cast earlier. Similarly, while Democrats may be pulling back from the pandemic-era habit of voting by mail, they may still turn out strongly on Election Day itself.

One effect of the early voting trend is that it could lead to faster results on election night. With more ballots already counted, the need for complex reporting delays could be reduced, especially as there may be less of a partisan split between how different types of votes (in-person early, mail, and Election Day) are cast. But the biggest question remains: What does this early voting surge really mean for the election outcome?

As experts like Jessica Piper point out, early voting data only shows us who has voted so far—it doesn’t tell us who will win. In swing states like Pennsylvania, Republicans may have gained ground with early votes but still need a strong showing on Election Day. Meanwhile, Democrats may be returning to pre-pandemic voting habits, casting ballots in person. Ultimately, as many political analysts agree, the answer will come on Election Day—but for now, we’ll just have to wait and see.