Around 9 a.m., one hour into the vote counting for the Haryana elections, Congress had surged ahead of the BJP. Celebrations erupted at the Congress headquarters in Delhi, filled with jalebis and dhols, while the BJP office stood deserted. However, just an hour later, the tide shifted, and the BJP made a strong comeback. Two hours later, the BJP had firmly taken the lead and appeared poised for a significant victory in Haryana, defying exit poll predictions. The BJP headquarters buzzed with activity, overflowing with sweets, while Congress leaders clung to hopes of a turnaround amid a tight race. With several rounds of counting remaining, it seemed unlikely that the outcome would change significantly.

Several factors contributed to Congress's setback:

1. Infighting: Congress had won 31 seats in the 2019 elections, but if current trends hold, the party has failed to improve its performance. Infighting among top leaders, particularly the power struggle between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja, hindered their efforts. Instead of presenting a united front, the party’s internal conflicts became public, damaging their campaign.

2. Regional Forces: While Congress was slightly ahead of the BJP in vote share, it struggled to convert this into seats. Many seats showed narrow margins, indicating that regional parties and independents siphoned off anti-incumbency votes, ultimately benefiting the BJP. The INLD and BSP made little impact, leading in only one seat each, while four independents were ahead.

3. Anti-Jat Consolidation: Congress, under Hooda's leadership, focused on Jat votes, but a counter-consolidation of non-Jat votes appeared to favor the BJP. The term "Jatshahi" (Jat supremacy) emerged in discussions, highlighting concerns that a Congress victory would signify a resurgence of Jat influence, which did not materialize.

4. BJP's Groundwork: Despite analysts dismissing the BJP's chances, effective groundwork shifted momentum back to the ruling party. Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan led the campaign efforts, which proved successful. Congress spokesperson Ajoy Kumar acknowledged the need for introspection on why public support did not translate into votes.

As counting continues, the dynamics in Haryana's political landscape remain closely watched.