Two facile interpretations of the election results should be resisted, however. The first is that whether educated urbanites like it or not, the outcome reflects the Turkish public’s democratic will. The second is the opposite of the first: that this was a sham election, engineered by an autocrat.

The truth is that many Turkish voters supported Erdoğan, despite recognizing that corruption in his party has reached astronomical proportions and that economic mismanagement has led to triple-digit inflation and severe hardship. They supported him even in areas hardest hit by the earthquake, where AKP’s graft was a major factor in the staggering damage and loss of life.

On the other hand, the election cannot be described as free and fair. Television and print media are under the almost complete control of Erdoğan and his allies. The leader of the Kurdish minority’s party has been in jail for several years, and the judiciary and much of the bureaucracy are no longer independent and consistently do Erdoğan’s bidding.

Erdoğan and AKP also use the state’s resources to sustain the formidable patronage network they created and to cater to key constituencies. Minimum-wage increases, pay raises to government employees, cheap credit from state banks to allied businesses, and pressure on companies to maintain employment, even in hard times, have cemented voter loyalties. Part of the reason why Erdoğan received so much support in earthquake zones is that he personally handed out cash, expanded government employment, and promised new houses to the victims.

But while Erdoğan’s opponents have again underestimated his skillful use of AKP’s local organizations and patronage networks and his ability to capture the mood of many voters, the election results are bad news for the future of Turkish institutions. Erdoğan’s control over the media, judiciary, and bureaucracy, including the central bank, will only grow. Policies to curb corruption or improve economic mismanagement appear unlikely.

(Continued in Support post…)